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Thoughts From The Divide - Archive

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Posts in Richmond Fed
Housing Daunted - October 23, 2018

Following the optimism of the previous week's builder data, a recent flood of data indicates potential rain in the housing market, including permits, starts, and applications. Paramount among the problems was affordability, which is becoming problematic due to higher mortgage rates and price inflation. Wage inflation could help with affordability, but has not accelerated past rising costs.

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Fed Inflation Reassurance - October 3, 2018

Following the release of Core PCE inline with the Fed's target of 2%, and the appearance that risks are roughly balance, the Fed believes that inflation is under control. We examine some recent research from the Richmond and Cleveland Feds to that effect, and cover a recent Powell speech on the inflation outlook.

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Confident Consumers, Tightness and Tariffs - August 28, 2018

Conference Board Consumer Confidence numbers indicate solid economic growth for the remainder of 2018 with both current conditions and expectations improving. Labor tightness plagues the trucking industry in FTR's State of Freight and appears in Dallas and Richmond Fed Manufacturing numbers. Trucking is also starting to be affected by tariffs.

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Construction and Curves - August 21, 2018

Richmond Fed’s Sonya Waddell weighs in on the momentum in the construction labor market, construction headwinds, and the opioid epidemic. Ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium, Atlanta Fed's Bostic worries about inverting the curve while Dallas Fed's Kaplan notes its correlation to recessions.

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Small Business Exuberance and Housing Wobbles - August 14, 2018

NFIB SBOI data indicates exuberance and extremely high levels of optimism, though labor tightness is having knock-on effects in the housing market. NAHB and the Lansing State Journal weigh in on the housing market, input costs, and housing affordability.

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US Wages and Europeans NPLs - April 24, 2018

Beige Book, Richmond Fed, and Consumer Confidence data all support anecdotal evidence from Walmart and railroad companies that indicates significant tightness in the labor market and incoming wage increases. Mario Draghi gave a speech discussing Non-Performing Loans, which could have been subject to new rules, but were instead left to bank supervisor's discretion, to the chagrin of German Andreas Dombret.

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