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Thoughts From The Divide - Archive

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Construction and Curves - August 21, 2018

Richmond Fed’s Sonya Waddell weighs in on the momentum in the construction labor market, construction headwinds, and the opioid epidemic. Ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium, Atlanta Fed's Bostic worries about inverting the curve while Dallas Fed's Kaplan notes its correlation to recessions.

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Small Business Exuberance and Housing Wobbles - August 14, 2018

NFIB SBOI data indicates exuberance and extremely high levels of optimism, though labor tightness is having knock-on effects in the housing market. NAHB and the Lansing State Journal weigh in on the housing market, input costs, and housing affordability.

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Manufacturing, Services, and the American Worker - June 5, 2018

The state of the American Worker appears to be good, with Manufacturing Job Openings at a 17-year high, but hiring numbers may be depressed by a lack of supply, according to Axios's Steve LeVine. A paper by Georgetown points to good paying jobs shifting to the service sector and the Kansas Fed weighs in on wage rigidities.

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Demographics and Trucking - May 22, 2018

The BIS revisits demographics trends and the link with inflation, providing more granularity on the effects of the old and the young. Trucking Tightness continues with the CASS Linehaul Index continuing to hit record highs, and the Washington Post reporting on a number of issues contributing to a looming storm in the trucking industry.

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US Wages and Europeans NPLs - April 24, 2018

Beige Book, Richmond Fed, and Consumer Confidence data all support anecdotal evidence from Walmart and railroad companies that indicates significant tightness in the labor market and incoming wage increases. Mario Draghi gave a speech discussing Non-Performing Loans, which could have been subject to new rules, but were instead left to bank supervisor's discretion, to the chagrin of German Andreas Dombret.

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Wage Dynamics Revisited: The American Worker - April 17, 2018

Following up on the Philips curve conundrum, a number of sources, including Axios and the New York Times, examine dynamics affecting the labor market, including the opioid epidemic, decreased geographic mobility, and the problems with worker retraining. Fed data pointed to shortages in the labor pool, while the Wall Street Journal covered companies hiring skilled teenagers to make up for labor shortages.

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