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Thoughts From The Divide - Archive

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Housing Constriction - September 18, 2018

Despite continuing confidence among home builders, housing affordability is becoming a challenge. The growing economy is helpind demand, but also tightening the labor market, leading to significant worker shortages, especially among skilled trades. There are also signs that affordability will not improve anytime soon, with continued low unemployment, tariffs, and widespread damage from hurricanes.

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SBOI Records and Tax Cuts - September 11, 2018

SBOI numbers came in at records as high expectations translated into "stuff that makes GDP grow". The effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act are beginning to materialize. The Council of Economic Advisers says compensation is stronger than the traditional, "misleading" metrics and the Fed reports on repatriated funds.

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Confident Consumers, Tightness and Tariffs - August 28, 2018

Conference Board Consumer Confidence numbers indicate solid economic growth for the remainder of 2018 with both current conditions and expectations improving. Labor tightness plagues the trucking industry in FTR's State of Freight and appears in Dallas and Richmond Fed Manufacturing numbers. Trucking is also starting to be affected by tariffs.

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Construction and Curves - August 21, 2018

Richmond Fed’s Sonya Waddell weighs in on the momentum in the construction labor market, construction headwinds, and the opioid epidemic. Ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium, Atlanta Fed's Bostic worries about inverting the curve while Dallas Fed's Kaplan notes its correlation to recessions.

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Small Business Exuberance and Housing Wobbles - August 14, 2018

NFIB SBOI data indicates exuberance and extremely high levels of optimism, though labor tightness is having knock-on effects in the housing market. NAHB and the Lansing State Journal weigh in on the housing market, input costs, and housing affordability.

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Manufacturing, Services, and the American Worker - June 5, 2018

The state of the American Worker appears to be good, with Manufacturing Job Openings at a 17-year high, but hiring numbers may be depressed by a lack of supply, according to Axios's Steve LeVine. A paper by Georgetown points to good paying jobs shifting to the service sector and the Kansas Fed weighs in on wage rigidities.

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Demographics and Trucking - May 22, 2018

The BIS revisits demographics trends and the link with inflation, providing more granularity on the effects of the old and the young. Trucking Tightness continues with the CASS Linehaul Index continuing to hit record highs, and the Washington Post reporting on a number of issues contributing to a looming storm in the trucking industry.

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