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Thoughts From The Divide - Archive

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Posts tagged Bloomberg
Chinese Liquidity, EM Debt, and Slowing ISM - September 3, 2019

Cracks are starting to show in China’s economy as a bank suspends dividend payments. Research from the NBER documents China’s transformation into the world’s largest creditor and what it means for debt sustainability in other countries. The latest ISM data shows the economy is contracting and Consumer Sentiment indicates that consumers are feeling the effects of tariffs.

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Economic Curves and U-Turns - August 27, 2019

The 2s-10s curve his back on the radar as it inverted before the latest Trump tweets and Jackson Hole, but research from the NY Fed finds the 10year - 3month spread to be a netter recession predictor. Larry Summers, the San Francisco Fed, and Bill Dudley all surprised us this week as they made U-turns from their precious positions on various economic topics including QE, negative rates, and Fed independence.

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Labor Pressure and Housing - August 6, 2019

Amid trade tweet turmoil, the latest JOLTS data is a source of relative calm, with “little changed” used 20 times and Job Openings continuing to outnumber Total Unemployed. The housing market is feeling the heat from the labor market as shortages across construction occupations are at record levels and continue to cause problems for affordability.

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Interest Rates Re-Examined - June 12, 2019

A number of commentators, including Warren Mosler and Jim Chanos, found fault with the monetary policy framework espoused by Ken Rogoff. They explain why central bankers have “got it backward” and why “the Fed itself” is behind some of the dynamics they are fighting.

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Shaky Confidence and Italy - May 28, 2019

Recent US data, such as the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Durable Goods Orders, and New Home Sales continue to underwhelm, but this could be related to current trade tensions. The Italian budget is back in the news as the European Commission and Italy are once again at odds.

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Trade Ripples - May 21, 2019

Recent developments in the trade war between the United States and China could have serious implications for some big name companies. Chas W. Freeman, Jr.’s recent speech regarding Sino-American relations provides broader context. Also, we have BONUS content in this Thoughts from the Divide!

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Déjà Vu: SBOI and Flipping - May 14, 2019

Recent news is giving us deja vu. The NFIB's SBOI data shows employment metrics are back near all-time highs. And house flipping is back in the news, with both small and large speculators taking some losses, but CoreLogic's report on flipping shows it's not yet time to be worried.

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