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Thoughts From The Divide - Archive

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Posts tagged CPI
SBOI, Inflation and the Fed - February 12, 2019

The NFIB released its Small Business Optimism Index and, while the press was quick to comment on the weakness of the data, the numbers were not all bad. Research suggests that recent inflationary pressures are something to shrug off and allowing inflation to run hot could have helped reduce economic slack.

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Independent Fed and Housing Optimism - October 16, 2018

As President Trump and Fed members exchange words following the recent market wobbles, we discuss 2005 research from the St. Louis Fed analyzing the Great Inflation, analyzing the human and political elements that complicated and informed the decision making. Housing remains in focus as builders continue to be optimistic, despite continued tightness in the labor market.

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Fed Inflation Reassurance - October 3, 2018

Following the release of Core PCE inline with the Fed's target of 2%, and the appearance that risks are roughly balance, the Fed believes that inflation is under control. Recent research from the Richmond and Cleveland Feds explores the relationship between producer prices and inflation, and a recent Powell speech covered his inflation outlook.

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Housing Constriction - September 18, 2018

Despite continuing confidence among home builders, housing affordability is becoming a challenge. The growing economy is helpind demand, but also tightening the labor market, leading to significant worker shortages, especially among skilled trades. There are also signs that affordability will not improve anytime soon, with continued low unemployment, tariffs, and widespread damage from hurricanes.

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Demographics and Trucking - May 22, 2018

The BIS revisits demographics trends and the link with inflation, providing more granularity on the effects of the old and the young. Trucking tightness continues with the Cass Linehaul Index continuing to hit record highs, and the Washington Post reporting on a number of issues contributing to a looming storm in the trucking industry.

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Fed Speak(s) - February 27, 2018

The Fed's Monetary Policy Report, released in conjunction with Jerome Powell's testimony, gave the usual boilerplate coverage of current inflation data, but offered a number of reasons as to why positive inflation momentum could continue. The Commerce Department released reports on steel and aluminum that President Trump may use to impose tariffs.

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