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Thoughts From The Divide - Archive

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Posts tagged Epsilon Theory
Economic Curves and U-Turns - August 27, 2019

The 2s-10s curve his back on the radar as it inverted before the latest Trump tweets and Jackson Hole, but research from the NY Fed finds the 10year - 3month spread to be a netter recession predictor. Larry Summers, the San Francisco Fed, and Bill Dudley all surprised us this week as they made U-turns from their precious positions on various economic topics including QE, negative rates, and Fed independence.

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Interest Rates Re-Examined - June 12, 2019

A number of commentators, including Warren Mosler and Jim Chanos, found fault with the monetary policy framework espoused by Ken Rogoff. They explain why central bankers have “got it backward” and why “the Fed itself” is behind some of the dynamics they are fighting.

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SBOI Records and Tax Cuts - September 11, 2018

SBOI numbers came in at records as high expectations translated into "stuff that makes GDP grow". The effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act are beginning to materialize. The Council of Economic Advisers says compensation is stronger than the traditional, "misleading" metrics and the Fed reports on repatriated funds.

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