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Thoughts From The Divide - Archive

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Posts tagged Fed
Uncertainty - October 28, 2019

The Dallas Fed’s latest Manufacturing Survey results indicate more optimism, though the respondents saw “a lot of uncertainty”. The Conference Boards Consumer Survey showed consumers have dimming expectations, but “there are no indications” holiday spending will be hurt. Jamie Dimon and others may trumpet the strength of the U.S. consumer, but banks are building their buffers against delinquent consumer loans.

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Liquidity and Labor - October 1, 2019

Zoltan Pozsar of Credit Suisse warned of potential problems in the dollar funding market before the Fed began its repo operations and is concerned that it needs to deliver deep rate cuts or potentially face “a fresh liquidity crisis”. Sylvain Leduc and Zheng Liu from the San Francisco Fed study the effects of automation on the labor share, concluding it has weakened “workers’ bargaining power”. Jonathan Tepper looks at workers and wages from a broader perspective in an oldie but goodie covering everything from mergers to CEO pay.

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Monetary Policy Pushback - July 30, 2019

Ruchir Sharma, Chief Global Strategist at Morgan Stanley reminds us that central banks can’t dictate where the money they print goes, and warns that easy money could set the stage for a market collapse. D.L. Thornton, ex-Vice President of the St. Louis Fed argues that low rates have failed to spur economic growth and have harmed sectors of the population.

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Fed Froth and Leveraged Loans - July 23, 2019

We take a look at mixed regional Fed data with their positive future outlook and the Bank of England’s concerning look into leveraged loans.

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Complicated Housing & Fed Preparation - April 23, 2019

The divergence in recent housing data both across price points and between new and existing housing imply complex dynamics going on under the surface. Also, while the Fed has cooed before, an ex-Fed president has gone as far as to say that the next move should be a rate cut.

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Quantitative Tightening & Auto Sales - April 9, 2019

The Trump-vs-the-Fed battle over quantitative tightening has flared up again and there are some peculiar dynamics under the surface of the auto sector in subprime auto loans.

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Superlative Labor & Missing Inflation - March 12, 2019

New Unemployment Rate data continues to surprise forecasters to the downside as job creation was at a record high. The strong labor market has economists puzzled over the lack of inflation, prompting the Fed to review their strategy, including looking at BoJ-inspired price controls.

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