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Thoughts From The Divide - Archive

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Posts tagged Housing
Cause and Effect - January 29, 2019

Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve do not see the Fed Balance Sheet runoff creating problems, but the tide may be changing as QT may reverse the virtuous cycle created by QE. Recent housing data has further shown mixed signals and the government is a bit worried about mortgage lenders.

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Rates, Rates, and More Rates - November 27, 2018

Going into the FOMC meeting in December, a number of important "rates" are making headlines. Vice Chariman Clarida discusses u* and r*. Research from the San Francisco Fed disagrees with Neel Kashkari's belief that the Labor Force Participation Rate implies Labor Slack. And, Mortgage Rates are the scapegoat for recent problems in the Housing Market.

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Housing Daunted - October 23, 2018

Following the optimism of the previous week's builder data, a recent flood of data indicates potential rain in the housing market, including permits, starts, and applications. Paramount among the problems was affordability, which is becoming problematic due to higher mortgage rates and price inflation. Wage inflation could help with affordability, but has not accelerated past rising costs.

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Independent Fed and Housing Optimism - October 16, 2018

As President Trump and Fed members exchange words following the recent market wobbles, we discuss 2005 research from the St. Louis Fed analyzing the Great Inflation, analyzing the human and political elements that complicated and informed the decision making. Housing remains in focus as builders continue to be optimistic, despite continued tightness in the labor market.

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Housing Constriction - September 18, 2018

Despite continuing confidence among home builders, housing affordability is becoming a challenge. The growing economy is helpind demand, but also tightening the labor market, leading to significant worker shortages, especially among skilled trades. There are also signs that affordability will not improve anytime soon, with continued low unemployment, tariffs, and widespread damage from hurricanes.

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Small Business Exuberance and Housing Wobbles - August 14, 2018

NFIB SBOI data indicates exuberance and extremely high levels of optimism, though labor tightness is having knock-on effects in the housing market. NAHB and the Lansing State Journal weigh in on the housing market, input costs, and housing affordability.

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