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Thoughts From The Divide - Archive

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Posts tagged Inflation
Superlative Labor & Missing Inflation - March 12, 2019

New Unemployment Rate data continues to surprise forecasters to the downside as job creation was at a record high. The strong labor market has economists puzzled over the lack of inflation, prompting the Fed to review their strategy, including looking at BoJ-inspired price controls.

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SBOI, Inflation and the Fed - February 12, 2019

The NFIB released its Small Business Optimism Index and, while the press was quick to comment on the weakness of the data, the numbers were not all bad. Research suggests that recent inflationary pressures are something to shrug off and allowing inflation to run hot could have helped reduce economic slack.

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Shades of Dove and Volatility - January 15, 2019

Whether you are bullish or bearish, the right side of the trade in Fed speak has been dovish. Current and previous Fed officials have been worried that the Fed is nearing policy error and could tip the economy into a recession. Chris Cole of Artemis Capital thinks more volatility is in store, which could pose a challenge to certain strategies and market participants.

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Housing Constriction - September 18, 2018

Despite continuing confidence among home builders, housing affordability is becoming a challenge. The growing economy is helpind demand, but also tightening the labor market, leading to significant worker shortages, especially among skilled trades. There are also signs that affordability will not improve anytime soon, with continued low unemployment, tariffs, and widespread damage from hurricanes.

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Fed Speak(s) - February 27, 2018

The Fed's Monetary Policy Report, released in conjunction with Jerome Powell's testimony, gave the usual boilerplate coverage of current inflation data, but offered a number of reasons as to why positive inflation momentum could continue. The Commerce Department released reports on steel and aluminum that President Trump may use to impose tariffs.

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BoJ Personnel and Regional Fed Numbers - February 20, 2018

With Kuroda an assumed shoo-in for selection for a second term, two new deputy governors look likely to be nominated, both of whom are considered to be doves and expected to not rock the boat. Philadelphia and Empire Fed Manufacturing numbers differed in a number of categories, but were united by strong prices paid, and positive expectations for capex and business plans.

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Demographics vs. Trends & Elections in Italy - January 30, 2018

A paper from the BIS argues that demographics will lead to reversals in long-running trends in real interest rates, inflation and wage growth, and inequality. Italian Elections loom as major candidates express hostility toward the EU and offer up proposals to circumvent Eurozone fiscal and monetary rules.

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