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Thoughts From The Divide - Archive

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Posts tagged Jerome Powell
Cause and Effect - January 29, 2019

Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve do not see the Fed Balance Sheet runoff creating problems, but the tide may be changing as QT may reverse the virtuous cycle created by QE. Recent housing data has further shown mixed signals and the government is a bit worried about mortgage lenders.

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Shades of Dove and Volatility - January 15, 2019

Whether you are bullish or bearish, the right side of the trade in Fed speak has been dovish. Current and previous Fed officials have been worried that the Fed is looming on policy error and could tip the economy into a recession. Also, Chris Cole of Artemis Capital thinks more volatility will show up in the markets.

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Economic & Policy Incongruities - December 11, 2018

Recently we’ve highlighted some US economic data has displayed some incongruities between ISM and Markit Manufacturing. Now, NFIB’s Small Business Optimism data, former Fed officials, and news sources have mixed signals.

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Rates, Rates, and More Rates - November 27, 2018

Going into the FOMC meeting in December, a number of important "rates" are making headlines. Vice Chariman Clarida discusses u* and r*. Research from the San Francisco Fed disagrees with Neel Kashkari's belief that the Labor Force Participation Rate implies Labor Slack. And, Mortgage Rates are the scapegoat for recent problems in the Housing Market.

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Where is Labor's Share - November 20, 2018

With much recent talk of workers being left behind, this weeks TFTD's focuses on a paper on the Labor Share from the NBER. While median labor share has increased, there are some negative trends, including increased value added at firms with low labor share, and asymmetrical responses to productivity shocks.

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Fed Inflation Reassurance - October 3, 2018

Following the release of Core PCE inline with the Fed's target of 2%, and the appearance that risks are roughly balance, the Fed believes that inflation is under control. We examine some recent research from the Richmond and Cleveland Feds to that effect, and cover a recent Powell speech on the inflation outlook.

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Fed Speak(s) - February 27, 2018

The Fed's Monetary Policy Report, released in conjunction with Jerome Powell's testimony, gave the usual boilerplate coverage of current inflation data, but offered a number of reasons as to why positive inflation momentum could continue. The Commerce Department released reports on steel and aluminum that President Trump may use to impose tariffs.

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