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Thoughts From The Divide - Archive

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Posts tagged Jerome Powell
Economic Curves and U-Turns - August 27, 2019

The 2s-10s curve his back on the radar as it inverted before the latest Trump tweets and Jackson Hole, but research from the NY Fed finds the 10year - 3month spread to be a netter recession predictor. Larry Summers, the San Francisco Fed, and Bill Dudley all surprised us this week as they made U-turns from their precious positions on various economic topics including QE, negative rates, and Fed independence.

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Freight's Perspective and Asset Purchases - July 16, 2019

We review the Cass Freight Index is “ signalling economic contraction” as indicators across sectors and geographic flash warning signs. and James Hamilton of UC San Diego warns that one of the unconventional tools that Powell and other central bankers rely on is less effective than its users believe.

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Unconstrained Negative Interest Rates - June 4, 2019

In “The Case for Implementing Negative Interest Rate Policy” Kenneth Rogoff & Andrew Lilley probe the limitations of monetary policy tools and examine the steps necessary to implement deeply negative interest rate policy.

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Complicated Housing & Fed Preparation - April 23, 2019

The divergence in recent housing data both across price points and between new and existing housing imply complex dynamics going on under the surface. Also, while the Fed has cooed before, an ex-Fed president has gone as far as to say that the next move should be a rate cut.

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Cause and Effect - January 29, 2019

Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve do not see the Fed Balance Sheet runoff creating problems, but the tide may be changing as QT may reverse the virtuous cycle created by QE. Recent housing data has further shown mixed signals and the government is a bit worried about mortgage lenders.

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Shades of Dove and Volatility - January 15, 2019

Whether you are bullish or bearish, the right side of the trade in Fed speak has been dovish. Current and previous Fed officials have been worried that the Fed is nearing policy error and could tip the economy into a recession. Chris Cole of Artemis Capital thinks more volatility is in store, which could pose a challenge to certain strategies and market participants.

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Economic & Policy Incongruities - December 11, 2018

Recently we’ve highlighted some US economic data has displayed some incongruities between ISM and Markit Manufacturing. Now, NFIB’s Small Business Optimism data, former Fed officials, and news sources have mixed signals.

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Rates, Rates, and More Rates - November 27, 2018

Going into the FOMC meeting in December, a number of important "rates" are making headlines. Vice Chariman Clarida discusses u* and r*. Research from the San Francisco Fed disagrees with Neel Kashkari's belief that the Labor Force Participation Rate implies Labor Slack. And, Mortgage Rates are the scapegoat for recent problems in the Housing Market.

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Where is Labor's Share - November 20, 2018

With much recent talk of workers being left behind, this weeks TFTD's focuses on a paper on the Labor Share from the NBER. While median labor share has increased, there are some negative trends, including increased value added at firms with low labor share, and asymmetrical responses to productivity shocks.

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Fed Inflation Reassurance - October 3, 2018

Following the release of Core PCE inline with the Fed's target of 2%, and the appearance that risks are roughly balance, the Fed believes that inflation is under control. Recent research from the Richmond and Cleveland Feds explores the relationship between producer prices and inflation, and a recent Powell speech covered his inflation outlook.

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Fed Speak(s) - February 27, 2018

The Fed's Monetary Policy Report, released in conjunction with Jerome Powell's testimony, gave the usual boilerplate coverage of current inflation data, but offered a number of reasons as to why positive inflation momentum could continue. The Commerce Department released reports on steel and aluminum that President Trump may use to impose tariffs.

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