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Posts tagged Labor
Rates, Rates, and More Rates - November 27, 2018

Going into the FOMC meeting in December, a number of important "rates" are making headlines. Vice Chariman Clarida discusses u* and r*. Research from the San Francisco Fed disagrees with Neel Kashkari's belief that the Labor Force Participation Rate implies Labor Slack. And, Mortgage Rates are the scapegoat for recent problems in the Housing Market.

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Dovish Daly? - November 13, 2018

In a recent speech, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly gave hope to those worried that the Fed was on a set path of hiking. First she assured the crowd that the Fed was data dependent, ignoring its horrendous record of forecasting problems and the massive transmission lag. Second she highlighted benign inflation numbers. Though inflation is still contained, recent job data indicates that wage inflation is on its way.

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Fed Themes and The Consumer - October 30, 2018

Recent Federal Reserve surveys show the economy is still expanding, albeit at a slower rate, with tariffs, labor, the supply chain, and housing  discussed as problems. Consumer Confidence was, however, undaunted. President Trump tweeted about the record numbers, which were partly due to strong employment growth and strong Expectation Index.

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NFIB Warning and Improving Conditions - October 9, 2018

Contrary to the Fed's rosy outlook on inflation, the lasest NFIB Small Business Optimism data indicates that the economy is running too hot and growing at an unsupportable rate. The same dynamics leading to overheating are helping workers, and certain demographics, including those with less than a high school diploma, are seeing strong earnings growth along with reduced unemployment and an increased participation rate.

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Housing Constriction - September 18, 2018

Despite continuing confidence among home builders, housing affordability is becoming a challenge. The growing economy is helpind demand, but also tightening the labor market, leading to significant worker shortages, especially among skilled trades. There are also signs that affordability will not improve anytime soon, with continued low unemployment, tariffs, and widespread damage from hurricanes.

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Confident Consumers, Tightness and Tariffs - August 28, 2018

Conference Board Consumer Confidence numbers indicate solid economic growth for the remainder of 2018 with both current conditions and expectations improving. Labor tightness plagues the trucking industry in FTR's State of Freight and appears in Dallas and Richmond Fed Manufacturing numbers. Trucking is also starting to be affected by tariffs.

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Demographics vs. Trends & Elections in Italy - January 30, 2018

A paper from the BIS argues that demographics will lead to reversals in long-running trends in real interest rates, inflation and wage growth, and inequality. Italian Elections loom as major candidates express hostility toward the EU and offer up proposals to circumvent Eurozone fiscal and monetary rules.

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