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Posts tagged NFIB
Déjà Vu: SBOI and Flipping - May 14, 2019

Recent news is giving us deja vu. The NFIB's SBOI data shows employment metrics are back near all-time highs. And house flipping is back in the news, with both small and large speculators taking some losses, but CoreLogic's report on flipping shows it's not yet time to be worried.

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Superlative Labor & Missing Inflation - March 12, 2019

New Unemployment Rate data continues to surprise forecasters to the downside as job creation was at a record high. The strong labor market has economists puzzled over the lack of inflation, prompting the Fed to review their strategy, including looking at BoJ-inspired price controls.

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SBOI, Inflation and the Fed - February 12, 2019

The NFIB released its Small Business Optimism Index and, while the press was quick to comment on the weakness of the data, the numbers were not all bad. Research suggests that recent inflationary pressures are something to shrug off and allowing inflation to run hot could have helped reduce economic slack.

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Economic & Policy Incongruities - December 11, 2018

Recently we’ve highlighted some US economic data has displayed some incongruities between ISM and Markit Manufacturing. Now, NFIB’s Small Business Optimism data, former Fed officials, and news sources have mixed signals.

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NFIB Warning and Improving Conditions - October 9, 2018

Contrary to the Fed's rosy outlook on inflation, the lasest NFIB Small Business Optimism data indicates that the economy is running too hot and growing at an unsupportable rate. The same dynamics leading to overheating are helping workers, and certain demographics, including those with less than a high school diploma, are seeing strong earnings growth along with reduced unemployment and an increased participation rate.

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SBOI Records and Tax Cuts - September 11, 2018

SBOI numbers came in at records as high expectations translated into "stuff that makes GDP grow". The effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act are beginning to materialize. The Council of Economic Advisers says compensation is stronger than the traditional, "misleading" metrics and the Fed reports on repatriated funds.

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Construction and Curves - August 21, 2018

Richmond Fed’s Sonya Waddell weighs in on the momentum in the construction labor market, construction headwinds, and the opioid epidemic. Ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium, Atlanta Fed's Bostic worries about inverting the curve while Dallas Fed's Kaplan notes its correlation to recessions.

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Small Business Exuberance and Housing Wobbles - August 14, 2018

NFIB SBOI data indicates exuberance and extremely high levels of optimism, though labor tightness is having knock-on effects in the housing market. NAHB and the Lansing State Journal weigh in on the housing market, input costs, and housing affordability.

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Manufacturing, Services, and the American Worker - June 5, 2018

The state of the American Worker appears to be good, with Manufacturing Job Openings at a 17-year high, but hiring numbers may be depressed by a lack of supply, according to Axios's Steve LeVine. A paper by Georgetown points to good paying jobs shifting to the service sector and the Kansas Fed weighs in on wage rigidities.

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