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Thoughts From The Divide - Archive

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Posts tagged President Trump
Economic Curves and U-Turns - August 27, 2019

The 2s-10s curve his back on the radar as it inverted before the latest Trump tweets and Jackson Hole, but research from the NY Fed finds the 10year - 3month spread to be a netter recession predictor. Larry Summers, the San Francisco Fed, and Bill Dudley all surprised us this week as they made U-turns from their precious positions on various economic topics including QE, negative rates, and Fed independence.

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Labor Pressure and Housing - August 6, 2019

Amid trade tweet turmoil, the latest JOLTS data is a source of relative calm, with “little changed” used 20 times and Job Openings continuing to outnumber Total Unemployed. The housing market is feeling the heat from the labor market as shortages across construction occupations are at record levels and continue to cause problems for affordability.

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Trade Ripples - May 21, 2019

Recent developments in the trade war between the United States and China could have serious implications for some big name companies. Chas W. Freeman, Jr.’s recent speech regarding Sino-American relations provides broader context. Also, we have BONUS content in this Thoughts from the Divide!

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Quantitative Tightening & Auto Sales - April 9, 2019

The Trump-vs-the-Fed battle over quantitative tightening has flared up again and there are some peculiar dynamics under the surface of the auto sector in subprime auto loans.

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