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Thoughts From The Divide - Archive

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Posts tagged Unemployment
Superlative Labor & Missing Inflation - March 12, 2019

New Unemployment Rate data continues to surprise forecasters to the downside as job creation was at a record high. The strong labor market has economists puzzled over the lack of inflation, prompting the Fed to review their strategy, including looking at BoJ-inspired price controls.

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Shades of Dove and Volatility - January 15, 2019

Whether you are bullish or bearish, the right side of the trade in Fed speak has been dovish. Current and previous Fed officials have been worried that the Fed is nearing policy error and could tip the economy into a recession. Chris Cole of Artemis Capital thinks more volatility is in store, which could pose a challenge to certain strategies and market participants.

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Where is Labor's Share - November 20, 2018

With much recent talk of workers being left behind, this weeks TFTD's focuses on a paper on the Labor Share from the NBER. While median labor share has increased, there are some negative trends, including increased value added at firms with low labor share, and asymmetrical responses to productivity shocks.

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NFIB Warning and Improving Conditions - October 9, 2018

Contrary to the Fed's rosy outlook on inflation, the lasest NFIB Small Business Optimism data indicates that the economy is running too hot and growing at an unsupportable rate. The same dynamics leading to overheating are helping workers, and certain demographics, including those with less than a high school diploma, are seeing strong earnings growth along with reduced unemployment and an increased participation rate.

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Housing Constriction - September 18, 2018

Despite continuing confidence among home builders, housing affordability is becoming a challenge. The growing economy is helpind demand, but also tightening the labor market, leading to significant worker shortages, especially among skilled trades. There are also signs that affordability will not improve anytime soon, with continued low unemployment, tariffs, and widespread damage from hurricanes.

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SBOI Records and Tax Cuts - September 11, 2018

SBOI numbers came in at records as high expectations translated into "stuff that makes GDP grow". The effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act are beginning to materialize. The Council of Economic Advisers says compensation is stronger than the traditional, "misleading" metrics and the Fed reports on repatriated funds.

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Confident Consumers, Tightness and Tariffs - August 28, 2018

Conference Board Consumer Confidence numbers indicate solid economic growth for the remainder of 2018 with both current conditions and expectations improving. Labor tightness plagues the trucking industry in FTR's State of Freight and appears in Dallas and Richmond Fed Manufacturing numbers. Trucking is also starting to be affected by tariffs.

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Wage Dynamics Revisited: The American Worker - April 17, 2018

Following up on the Philips curve conundrum, a number of sources, including Axios and the New York Times, examine dynamics affecting the labor market, including the opioid epidemic, decreased geographic mobility, and problems with worker retraining. Fed data pointed to shortages in the labor pool, while the Wall Street Journal covered companies hiring skilled teenagers to make up for labor shortages.

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Fed Speak(s) - February 27, 2018

The Fed's Monetary Policy Report, released in conjunction with Jerome Powell's testimony, gave the usual boilerplate coverage of current inflation data, but offered a number of reasons as to why positive inflation momentum could continue. The Commerce Department released reports on steel and aluminum that President Trump may use to impose tariffs.

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All Things Fed & ECB Purchases - January 23, 2018

Bill Dudley gives a candid interview with the Financial Times, covering the business cycle, demographics, fiscal stimulus, the labor market, and the Phillips Curve. The ECB begins to taper, maintaining that purchases will last as long as necessary, while Jens Weidmann pushes for a specific end date.

 

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