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Thoughts From The Divide - Archive

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The Fed and Evolving QT - April 30, 2019

Following Ex-Fed Kocherlakota's call for a rate cut, WSJ's Nick Timiraos details the economic conditions that would lead current FOMC members to consider cuts. Meanwhile, yet another recent Fed paper on reserves, this time in the context of a potential repo facility, indicates that, when it comes to the level of "ample reserves", they are just "guesstimating".

 

 

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Complicated Housing & Fed Preparation - April 23, 2019

The divergence in recent housing data both across price points and between new and existing housing imply complex dynamics going on under the surface. Also, while the Fed has cooed before, an ex-Fed president has gone as far as to say that the next move should be a rate cut.

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Quantitative Tightening & Auto Sales - April 9, 2019

This week we look at the recent flare up in Trump-vs-the-Fed battle over quantitative tightening and examine some peculiar dynamics in the auto sector via subprime auto loans.

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SBOI, Inflation and the Fed - February 12, 2019

The NFIB released its Small Business Optimism Index and while the press was quick to comment on the weakness of the data, overall the numbers were not all bad. Also, get into why some research suggests that recent inflationary pressures are something to shrug off.

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Inflation and The Fed - February 5, 2019

While last Friday’s data dump all pointed to robust growth in the US, it seemed like the market was mostly focused on the hemming and hawing of the Federal Reserve. This week, we look at three interesting pieces that help make sense of it all.

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Cause and Effect - January 29, 2019

Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve do not see the Fed Balance Sheet runoff creating problems, but the tide may be changing as QT may reverse the virtuous cycle created by QE. Recent housing data has further shown mixed signals and the government is a bit worried about mortgage lenders.

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